The world of rugby is on the cusp of a revolution, as the sport increasingly adopts a Moneyball-style approach to the game. With the Six Nations championship just around the corner, two recent club victories have caught the attention of fans and analysts alike. Northampton's stunning win at Bath and Bristol's 60-point romp in Pretoria against the Bulls have raised interesting questions about the role of data analysis in modern rugby.
The Saints' victory, in particular, was notable for their unconventional approach to the game. Despite losing the territory battle, they opted to throw 12 passes for every kick, seeking to shift the point of attack and exploit space rather than relying on traditional set-piece dominance and close-quarters power. This approach paid off, with their sharp attacking angles, deft handling, and speed of thought proving too much for Bath to handle.
The Bears, on the other hand, took a slightly different approach, kicking more frequently to give their forwards a breather in demanding conditions. However, it was their passing movement, pace, and understanding of how and where to strike that ultimately shredded the Bulls' defense. These victories have prompted some interesting philosophical questions about the role of data analysis in modern rugby and whether the prevailing emphasis on defense, intelligent kicking, and rugged scrummaging is being overplayed.
The Importance of Attacking Flair
According to analyst Sam Larner, author of the forthcoming book Attacking The Space: Inside rugby's tactical and data revolution, the key to success lies in a razor-sharp, proactive attacking game. Larner argues that possession is meaningless unless it's in the opposing 22 and that kicking is not killing rugby, but rather improving it. He even goes so far as to suggest that kicking can be a beautiful thing, akin to paying tax and seeing the benefits, which can give one a sense of civic pride.
"Possession is meaningless unless it's in the opposing 22. Kicking is not killing rugby. It's improving it. Kicking is a beautiful thing which can be adored rather than endured in the same way that paying tax and seeing the benefits can give you a sense of civic pride."
Larner's book, which will be published on January 29, seeks to demystify the tactical and data-driven aspects of the game that often confuse or infuriate newcomers. As a child of the digital generation, Larner loves data and knows the value of a box kick to the nearest decimal point. He notes that teams will go through an average of 5.4 phases before a mistake is made, resulting in a loss of possession, which is why many sides are happy to kick the ball skywards at the earliest opportunity.
The Rise of Data-Driven Rugby
The average number of kicks per game at the 2023 Rugby World Cup was up by 20% and the highest recorded since 1995, with teams averaging 57 kicks per game. This trend towards data-driven decision making is reminiscent of the Moneyball approach, which Larner was inspired by after reading Michael Lewis's book at the age of 16. His findings have surprised even himself, including the discovery that the biggest difference between the best and worst teams in the leagues is not their defensive systems, but rather the minimal differences that can be crucially multiplied by other related factors.
As the sport continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how teams balance their approach, weighing the importance of data-driven decision making against the need for attacking flair and creativity. One thing is certain, however: the future of rugby will be shaped by a combination of traditional values and cutting-edge analysis.
In conclusion, the recent victories by Northampton and Bristol have highlighted the importance of a proactive, data-driven approach to the game. As teams increasingly adopt this approach, it will be fascinating to see how the sport evolves and whether the emphasis on defense, intelligent kicking, and rugged scrummaging will continue to dominate the game. With the Six Nations championship just around the corner, fans and analysts alike will be eagerly watching to see how the trend towards data-driven rugby plays out on the pitch.
Original: The Guardian
Image: The Guardian
Written by Npsports
