The NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape, and two teams are standing out from the rest in the pursuit of the coveted number one seed in the AFC. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, both boasting impressive 11-2 records, are in the midst of 10-game winning streaks, leaving the rest of the conference in their wake. With only four regular-season games remaining, the stakes are high, and the margin for error is slim.
According to Broncos head coach Sean Payton, the importance of securing the number one seed cannot be overstated. Home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs is a significant incentive, and Payton knows firsthand the difference it can make. He recalled his time as the New Orleans Saints' head coach, when his team had to travel to Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game in 2006, only to suffer a crushing 39-14 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears. "I remember after that tough loss feeling like, 'We have to find a way to play this game at home,'" Payton said. This experience has clearly left a lasting impression on the veteran coach.
Each week, we build up this equity of where we are... and these guys are smart enough to know what each of these games count for. - Sean Payton
In contrast, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is taking a more focused approach, concentrating on the task at hand. "We're just trying to play for the championship that we have available this week," he said, referencing the team's upcoming matchup against the Buffalo Bills. A win would secure the AFC East title for the Patriots, their first since 2019. Only then might their attention turn to the possibility of claiming the number one seed.
ESPN reporters Mike Reiss and Jeff Legwold have analyzed the remaining schedules for both teams, identifying the keys to success, potential hurdles, and tiebreaker scenarios. Here's a breakdown of what's to come:
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Broncos have a 45.6% chance of securing the number one seed, while the Patriots have a 38.4% chance. The same metrics give the Broncos an 86% chance of winning the AFC West and a 39.6% chance of making the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots, on the other hand, have an 81.5% chance of winning the AFC East and a 33.8% chance of making the AFC Championship Game.
For the Broncos, the key to success lies in maintaining the current groove of quarterback Bo Nix. Since a lackluster performance in Week 10, Nix has found a rhythm, completing 70% of his passes and ranking fifth in completion percentage above expectation. The Patriots, meanwhile, need to focus on their upcoming games and take it one week at a time, as emphasized by Coach Vrabel.
The stage is set for an exciting conclusion to the regular season, with the Broncos and Patriots vying for the top spot in the AFC. As the stakes grow higher, every game counts, and the margin for error continues to shrink. Which team will emerge victorious and claim the coveted number one seed? Only time will tell.
Original: ESPN
Image: ESPN
Written by Npsports
